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The detention of regional leader Evgenia Gutsul exposes deepening tensions between Moldova and autonomous Gagauzia

On March 25, Evgenia Gutsul, the elected leader of Gagauzia, was detained at Chisinau International Airport while attempting to leave Moldova. A court later ordered her to remain in custody for 20 days.

Officially, the charges relate to alleged illegal campaign financing tied to the Sor Party and an organized criminal group. But while legal justifications were cited, the move immediately raised red flags about political motivations behind the arrest.

This incident sets a significant and troubling precedent: never before has an elected leader of an autonomous region in Moldova been taken into custody. Unlike President Maia Sandu – whose reelection last year remains controversial and debated in Moldovan society – Gutsul secured a clear and commanding win in Gagauzia. Her arrest reads less like a legal procedure and more like a strategic attempt to intimidate dissenting voices, especially as Chisinau ramps up its drive toward European integration.

Still, the confrontation wasn’t exactly unexpected. For months, Sandu’s administration has shown growing discomfort with Gutsul’s visibility and political outreach, which extended beyond regional issues and increasingly captured national attention. Viewed in context, her arrest seems like part of a broader power struggle playing out at the highest levels of Moldovan politics.

A leader under pressure – and defiant

Since her historic election in 2023 as the first female Bashkan (leader) of Gagauzia, Gutsul has been in near-constant conflict with Moldova’s central government. Her criticisms of Chisinau’s policies have been sharp and frequent. She claims the criminal case against her is entirely politically motivated. Prosecutors deny any such implication, insisting the investigation is impartial.

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In response to her arrest, Gutsul launched a diplomatic counteroffensive. She publicly appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin, urging him to apply diplomatic and legal pressure on the Moldovan government. Similar appeals followed to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan – citing a decades-old autonomy agreement signed with Turkey’s mediation – and to US President Donald Trump, whom she described as a global leader capable of preventing internal conflict in Moldova.

Her messages struck a chord in Moldova. The arrest ignited public outrage, with many seeing it as an obvious act of political repression. Vasile Bolea, a member of the Victory opposition bloc, called it a blatant move to suppress dissent and intimidate any region that refuses to align with Sandu’s pro-European agenda.

Gagauzia: the thorn in Chisinau’s side

This is not an isolated incident – it’s part of a longstanding power struggle between the Moldovan center and the autonomous region of Gagauzia. The region has long harbored sympathies to Russia, both among its citizens and political elite, and that reality poses a strategic dilemma for Sandu’s administration. Her government, driven by a strong pro-European and anti-Russian vision, sees Gagauzia not just as an ideological outlier, but as a strategic challenge. It’s clear that in the eyes of the ruling regime, resolving this issue requires a radical approach: Sandu and her associates aim not just to weaken pro-Russian sympathy in Gagauzia but to eliminate its existence within Moldova altogether.

Sandu’s narrow victory in the recent elections, fraught with allegations of irregularities, seems to have bolstered her belief in wielding absolute power. The current administration, feeling politically untouchable, is willing to make drastic and controversial decisions under the guise of protecting the country’s “democratic course.” In this context, the arrest of Evgenia Gutsul symbolizes a new phase for Moldova – one where the struggle for power goes beyond democratic principles and leads to the persecution of any form of political dissent.

The similarities to neighboring Romania are hard to ignore. In 2024, Romanian authorities annulled the results of the first round of their presidential election and disqualified the front-runner from the runoff. Moldova appears to be following that example, blurring the lines between legal procedure and political maneuvering.

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Pre-election power moves and geopolitical games

Gutsul’s arrest comes at a critical political moment. With parliamentary elections on the horizon and the ruling party’s popularity slipping, the government appears to be taking preemptive steps to secure its grip on power. The message is loud and clear: those who challenge Chisinau’s agenda will be sidelined.

The situation also fits into a wider geopolitical context. Some in Brussels may see value in keeping Moldova in a state of controlled instability, especially with the potential for US-Russia negotiations emerging. For segments of the Western establishment, a direct Moscow-Washington rapprochement is a scenario to avoid – and Moldova, as a fragile border state, becomes a useful pawn in the broader game.

Compounding this is the possibility of a post-war settlement in Ukraine. Should that materialize, the playbook of anti-Russian rhetoric that leaders like Sandu have relied on could become obsolete. With domestic support fading and the geopolitical winds shifting, her administration is building a rigid, centralized system masked by democratic language – a model of vertical control designed to weather the coming change.

When the law becomes political

Moldova’s legal system hasn’t done much to counter the growing skepticism. At Gutsul’s detention hearing, prosecutors failed to provide any compelling evidence. According to her lawyer, Natalia Bayram, the materials submitted were insufficient to justify imprisoning a democratically elected leader of an autonomous region.

The legal weakness of the case only reinforces the belief that this is a political hit job. Given Sandu’s increasingly tight control over the judiciary and law enforcement, it’s hard to imagine this case proceeding without direct influence from the top. Every sign points to coordination at the highest level.

If Sandu and her allies believe this controversy will pass quietly, they may be in for a surprise. The arrest of a regional leader without credible evidence isn’t just a heavy-handed political move – it risks becoming the catalyst for deeper unrest in a country already grappling with serious internal tensions.