A host of national polls released this week found the leftist Liberal Party of Canada enjoying a modest lead, or virtually tying, against the Conservatives – their best polling in years following the resignation of unpopular former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau this week and a chaotic political situation exacerbated by President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to annex the country.
Canada is expected to hold a general election this year, as it is legally required to do so by the end of October. Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney, who took over for Trudeau last week, is expected to call for an election much sooner than this fall, however.
Prior to the Liberals replacing Trudeau with the unelected Carney, the Conservatives under the leadership of member of Parliament Pierre Poilievre were enjoying double-digit leads in the polls, surging over both the Liberals and the far-left New Democratic Party (NDP) combined. With Trudeau out of the public eye and Carney – an unelected technocrat with no political experience prior to becoming head of government – at the helm, that lead has all but disappeared.
The CBC News average of polls as of Tuesday found the Liberals attracting 35.9 percent support compared to the Conservatives’ 38.1 percent. The NDP is at a distant third with 1.4 percent.
Trump on Negotiations with Trudeau: We Don’t Need Canada “for Anything”
“The Conservatives hold a narrow lead in the polling average, which takes into account a greater number of surveys conducted over a longer period of time, but multiple polls published in recent days put the Liberals in the lead nationally,” the CBC observed.
The Liberals hit their lowest point in recent memory in the CBC average in January, when their support dropped to 20 percent. After Trudeau announced his resignation that month, their support began slowly rising until passing the 35-point mark this week.
Individual polls taken into account in the average show similarly dire changes for the Conservatives. A survey published by the National Post on Monday found a three-point lead for Liberals – 42 percent to the Conservatives’ 39 percent – and the NDP attracting nine percent support. A poll published by the Angus Reid Institute found 42 percent support for the Liberals compared to 37 percent for Conservatives. A third poll published on Tuesday by the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), conducted by Liaison Strategies, found the Liberals leading with 39 percent to the Conservatives’ 36 percent.
The trend appeared to begin in late February, when the Ipsos firm published a poll finding the Liberal Party two points above the Conservatives, 38 to 36 percent, for the first time since 2021. And while it has continued, analysts this week suggested that Carney’s status as a political novice and the still-unknown length of the election campaign mean that there is no guarantee the Conservatives’ decline will continue.
Andrew Enns of Leger, which jointly conducted the poll with the National Post, noted that a significant number of voters indicated they did not have an especially clearly defined of Carney. Carney served as the head of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England and has largely existed in politics as an unofficial adviser to Trudeau on issues such as the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic and climate change.
“I’m sure you talk to political strategists, they’ll also say that there’s risk there, that with that unpainted canvas, just be careful who gets hold of the paintbrush because they start filling it in the way they want to, that can become a bit of a problem,” Enns said.
The Leger poll found that 28 percent of respondents did not feel they knew enough about Carney to form an opnion. In contrast, less than half of those – 12 percent – said the same about Poilievre, who entered Parliament in 2004 at the age of 25.
Commenting on his firm’s own poll, Liaison Strategies’ David Valentin similarly observed that the election is not imminent enough to secure the Liberal lead.
FLASHBACK — Trudeau’s Canada “Freedom Convoy” Protester: Families “Have Had Enough”
“It’s also important to remember that the election has yet to begin. The writ period presents an opportunity for Mr. Carney to make missteps and for the Conservatives to regain their lead,” Valentin remarked. “But the same applies in reverse—there’s plenty of time for Mr. Poilievre and the Conservatives to stumble, allowing Mr. Carney to further strengthen his position at the expense of either the Conservatives or the NDP or both.”
With Trudeau out of the political picture, Poilievre has refocused his campaign against Carney, attempting to brand him as the worst possible negotiator on tariffs against President Trump.
“Donald Trump will have a big smile on his face as he exploits all of Carney’s many conflicts to attack Canadian workers and Canadian jobs,” Poilievre said on Sunday, hours before the Liberals elected Carney in a closed election to lead them.
“Working for Trudeau, Carney made Canada weaker and poorer,” he accused. “Working for himself, Carney made the United States richer and stronger – and, for the first time in our history, Canada will have a sneaky prime minister with millions of dollars of financial interests that go directly against our national interest.”
Carney began facing questions about his vast financial interests internationally this week and responded with ire.
“Look inside yourself. You start from a prior of conflict and ill will,” he snapped at a reporter asking him if he would disclose his assets on Monday. “I have served in the private sector. I have stood up for Canada. I have left my roles in the private sector at a time of crisis for our country. I’m complying with all the rules.”
Follow Frances Martel on Facebook and Twitter.
Be the first to comment